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本文将对外贸易区域差异分为规模差异和质量差异进行对比分析,发现2002-2014年长江经济带对外贸易规模和质量均有较大幅度提高,但省际间对外贸易规模差异和质量差异呈现减小趋势,且各省间对外贸易质量不均衡程度比规模不均衡程度要小。通过面板GMM估计发现省级经济发展水平、对外贸易滞后效应、外商直接投资、外商直接投资与人均GDP的交互项对长江经济带对外贸易规模和质量均产生显著正向影响;进一步分时段估计发现,外商直接投资对外贸规模的影响呈先上升后下降的倒U型,而对于外贸质量的影响则是波动中呈下降态势。
In this paper, we compare the regional differences of foreign trade with the differences in scale and quality, and find that the scale and quality of foreign trade in the Yangtze River economic belt have been greatly improved from 2002 to 2014. However, the differences in the scale and quality of foreign trade among provinces show a decrease Small trend, and the level of imbalance in the quality of foreign trade between the provinces than the scale of the imbalance is smaller. Through panel GMM estimation, it is found that provincial level of economic development, the lag effect of foreign trade, foreign direct investment, the interaction between foreign direct investment and per capita GDP have a significant positive impact on the scale and quality of foreign trade in the Yangtze River economic belt; further sub-period estimates found , The impact of foreign direct investment on the scale of foreign trade first showed an inverted U shape after rising and then decreased while the impact on foreign trade quality showed a downward trend in fluctuation.