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随着西安市城市规模不断扩大,居民采暖用气在冬季用气负荷中所占比例逐年上升,燃气供需矛盾日益突出。为确保民生用气平稳有序,降低燃气管道运行风险,对城市用气短期负荷作出准确预测尤为重要。通过对西安冬季气温与燃气日负荷之间的关系分析,发现在不同的气温条件下,气温累积效应的强度不同,对燃气日负荷影响程度也不同。因此,提出基于累积系数k的气温修正公式,在新公式中引入了预测日平均气温、低温持续天数及预测日前3天温差等因素的影响,从而使燃气日负荷与气温之间的相关程度得到了较大提高。通过实例预测结果表明:通过累积效应系数对预测日气温进行修正后,得到了较高精度的燃气负荷预测结果,修正后预测值与实际燃气负荷的平均相对误差由修正前的7.78%降至4.63%。(图1,表3,参10)
With the continuous expansion of urban area in Xi’an, the proportion of residential heating gas used in winter gas load increases year by year, and the contradiction between supply and demand of gas has become increasingly prominent. In order to ensure a steady and orderly use of gas for people’s livelihood and reduce the operational risk of gas pipelines, it is particularly important to make accurate prediction of the urban gas short-term load. Through the analysis of the relationship between the winter temperature in Xi’an and the daily load of gas, it is found that under different temperature conditions, the cumulative effect of temperature has different intensities and different degrees of influence on gas daily load. Therefore, the temperature correction formula based on the cumulative coefficient k is proposed, and the influence of such factors as the predicted daily average temperature, the duration of the low temperature and the temperature difference three days before the forecast are introduced into the new formula so that the correlation between the daily load of gas and the temperature is obtained A big increase. The results of the case prediction show that the gas temperature forecast with higher accuracy is achieved after the cumulative effect coefficient is used to correct the forecast day temperature. The average relative error between the predicted value and the actual gas load decreases from 7.78% before correction to 4.63 %. (Figure 1, Table 3, reference 10)