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介绍了新开发的电力负荷特性预测软件包实现的年持续负荷曲线预测和典型日负荷曲线预测的预测原理和方法。软件既能通过多种负荷预测模型对未来年的年最大负荷、用电量进行预测;也能对未来年的负荷特性曲线进行预测。其中,年持续负荷曲线采用排序法进行预测;典型日负荷曲线采用分行业叠加法进行预测。应用结果表明本软件的预测效果较好,达到了实用化水平。
The principle and method of forecasting annual sustained load curve and typical daily load curve forecast realized by the newly developed power load characteristics prediction package are introduced. The software not only predicts the annual maximum load and power consumption of a year by using a variety of load forecasting models, but also predicts the load characteristic curve of future years. Among them, the annual load curve using the ranking method to predict; typical daily load curve using sub-industry forecasting method. The application results show that the software has a good forecasting effect and reaches a practical level.