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2012年美国玉米减产,国际市场供应偏紧,2012/13年度全球玉米库存消费比创下39年以来新低,国际价格创下历史新高。价格高企抑制了国际玉米市场采购需求,并导致全球玉米贸易格局发生明显改变。2012年玉米价格上涨刺激2013年全球玉米播种面积同比扩大,并将带来产量增加,2013/14年度全球玉米库存消费比将明显回升。预计2013/14年度国际玉米价格将低位运行,国外玉米运抵中国南方港口完税后成本明显低于国产玉米,中国用粮企业进口玉米可行性增加。
In 2012, the U.S. maize production was reduced and the supply in the international market was tight. The global corn stockpile ratio in 2012/13 hit the lowest level in 39 years and the international price hit a record high. The high price restrains the procurement demand in the international corn market and leads to a noticeable change in the global corn trade pattern. The increase in the price of maize in 2012 stimulated a year-on-year increase in the area of maize acreage in 2013 and will lead to an increase in production. The global corn stockpiling ratio will rebound sharply in 2013/14. The international corn price is expected to be running at a low level in 2013/14. The cost of foreign corn arriving at the southern port of China will be significantly lower than the cost of domestically produced corn, and the feasibility of using imported corn by grain enterprises in China will increase.