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本文利用中国1981-1999年的年度资料,以指数型式的方法,衡量了这段期间的出口不稳定指数,并探讨了造成中国出口不稳定的成因。实证结果认为,以指数型式的出口不稳定指数为解释变量,造成中国出口下稳定的主要因素有:商品集中度与杂项制品的出口比率,其影响效果前者为正,后者为负。而初级产品的出口比率与机械设备的出口比率刚好勉强满足10％的显著水平上t统计值的检验要求,这两者对我国的出口不稳定有负向显著影响。而地理集中度的影响则不显著。这一现象说明若要降低我国的贸易不稳定性,则要降低我国的出口商品的集中度,实行商品出口的多样化,分散出口产品的类别,从而降低杂项制品的出口比重。
Based on the annual data of China from 1981 to 1999, this paper uses exponential methods to measure the index of export instability during this period and explores the causes of the destabilization of China’s exports. The empirical results show that the exponential type of export instability index as explanatory variables, resulting in the stability of China’s exports are the main factors: the concentration of goods and miscellaneous exports, the impact of the former is positive, the latter is negative. However, the export ratio of primary products to the export of machinery and equipment barely met the test requirement of t-statistic at the significant level of 10%, both of which have a negative and significant impact on China’s export instability. The effect of geographical concentration is not significant. This phenomenon shows that to reduce the trade instability in our country, we must lower our country’s export product concentration, diversify the commodity exports, diversify the categories of export products, and reduce the export share of miscellaneous products.