[目的]通过拟合ARIMA模型对我国人均卫生费用进行预测,为卫生部门决策提供依据。[方法]采用SAS分析系统的时间序列模块,找出合适的ARIMA模型进行预测评价。[结果]通过对1978～2006年的人均卫生费用的数据拟合发现此费用处于增长趋势。[结论]人均卫生费用随着时间而增长,卫生部门需合理控制人均卫生费用。 [Objective] To forecast the per capita health expenditure in China by fitting the ARIMA model, and provide the basis for the decision of the health department. [Methods] The time series module of SAS analysis system was used to find out the suitable ARIMA model for predictive evaluation. [Result] Through the data fitting of per capita health expenditure from 1978 to 2006, we find that the cost is in the trend of increase. [Conclusion] The per capita health expenditure increases with time, and the health department needs to rationally control per capita health expenses.