论文部分内容阅读
基于地震灾害风险形成机理,在建立人口震害脆弱性曲线与确定地震发生参数的基础上,本文利用评估模型对我国Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行评估并分析其空间分布格局。主要研究内容有:(1)首次采用基于过去—现在—未来的多方面地震孕灾环境资料来处理地震发生的可能性。具体综合历史地震综合烈度、地震活动断裂带分布、地震动峰值加速度三方面来确定全国2355个县域单元的地震发生参数;(2)利用1990-2009年我国历史地震灾情数据,对地震烈度与人员死亡率之间进行线性拟合,建立适合我国地震灾害风险评估的震害人口死亡脆弱性曲线;(3)利用震害风险评估模型对我国各县域单元的人口死亡风险进行定量评估,并分析风险空间分布格局,彻底摸清Ⅴ-Ⅺ地震烈度下我国各县域单元的地震灾害人口死亡风险。研究表明:在不同地震烈度下,我国广大的东、中部地区面临更高的风险,而西部的人口死亡风险相对较低。高风险区域呈零星状分布于山东与江苏大部、安徽北部、黑龙江与吉林东部等人口分布较密集且孕灾环境发育完备的区域。而无风险区域在全国范围内呈斑块状散布,分布格局基本保持不变。
Based on the formation mechanism of earthquake disaster risk, based on the establishment of the vulnerability curve of the population damage and the determination of the parameters of the earthquake occurrence, this paper evaluates the risk of death of population in each county in China under the Ⅴ-Ⅺ earthquake intensity by using the evaluation model and analyzes the spatial distribution pattern. The main research contents are as follows: (1) For the first time, the possibility of earthquakes is dealt with by the data of the past and present-future multi-seismary earthquake disaster environment. The earthquake occurrence parameters of 2355 counties in the country are determined comprehensively by comprehensively combining the comprehensive intensity of historical earthquake, the distribution of seismic activity fault zone and the peak acceleration of ground motion. (2) Using the historical earthquake data of China from 1990 to 2009, (3) Using the earthquake damage risk assessment model to quantitatively assess the death risk of population in all counties in China, and analyzing the risk Spatial pattern of distribution, and thoroughly find out the risk of death due to earthquake-affected population in units of counties in China under the seismic intensity of Ⅴ-Ⅺ. The research shows that under different seismic intensity, the vast eastern and central regions of our country face higher risks, while the risk of death in western China is relatively low. High-risk areas were sporadic distribution in Shandong and Jiangsu most, northern Anhui, Heilongjiang and eastern Jilin and other population more densely distributed and pregnant disaster environment is well developed areas. The risk-free areas in the country were patchy, the distribution pattern remained unchanged.