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论文以四川冬小麦种植区1981—2012年88个县的气象观测数据和冬小麦生产数据为基础,采用一元线性回归和逐步回归等方法,评价四川冬小麦产量对单个气候因子及气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性。结果显示:假设冬小麦生育期内平均气温和日较差升高1℃、降水量下降100 mm、辐射量下降100 MJ/m~2,冬小麦的产量随之发生变化,全生育期降水量下降导致产量敏感的面积最大,占整个研究区域播种总面积的6.5%;而辐射量下降使产量脆弱的面积最大,为2.4%。从各个生育阶段来看,研究区域内冬小麦产量对播种到拔节期辐射量下降表现为敏感和脆弱的面积比例最大,分别占9.4%和7.9%。受到4种气候因子变化的综合影响,产量对冬小麦生育期内气候变化表现为敏感的面积占播种总面积的40.0%,在7个冬麦区均有分布,产量变化为-23.0%~9.5%;产量脆弱的面积占14.0%,主要分布在川西北高原大部及盆西、盆南和川西南的部分区域。
Based on the meteorological observation data and winter wheat production data of 88 counties from 1981 to 2012 in Sichuan wheat growing area, the paper uses the methods of one-way linear regression and stepwise regression to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of winter wheat yield in Sichuan to individual climatic factors and climate change Sex. The results showed that if the average temperature and diurnal variation of winter wheat were increased by 1 ℃, the precipitation decreased by 100 mm and the radiation decreased by 100 MJ / m ~ 2, the yield of winter wheat changed with the decrease of precipitation during the whole growth period Yield-sensitive area was the largest, accounting for 6.5% of the total area planted throughout the study area; and the decline in radiation yield the largest yield-vulnerable area of 2.4%. From all the stages of fertility, the area of winter wheat yield sensitive and vulnerable to the decline of sowing to jointing stage radiation was the largest, accounting for 9.4% and 7.9% respectively. Affected by the changes of four climatic factors, the yield sensitive to the climate change during the growth of winter wheat accounted for 40.0% of the total sown area, and all the seven winter wheat areas were distributed with the yield changing from -23.0% to 9.5% ; The yield-vulnerable area accounted for 14.0%, mainly distributed in most parts of northwestern Sichuan Plateau and parts of the basin, basin and part of southwestern Sichuan.