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本文基于动态CGE模型构建了一个能源-经济-环境模型,对2020年的CO2减排的潜力和政策选择进行了模拟。结果显示,碳税和投资调整是减缓CO2排放增长的有效政策手段,但它们对GDP会产生负面影响。加快技术进步可以同时促进减排和经济增长。在高技术进步+中碳税,以及低技术进步+中碳税+中投资调整的情景下,中国2020年的CO2排放量将达到92.7-95.5亿t,CO2排放强度将为1.38-1.43t 万元-1。根据中国政府提出的2020年的减排目标,中国CO2排放强度需要由2005年的2.41t 万元-1降到2020年的1.45t 万元-1(2007年不变价表示)。但要实现这40%的减排目标并非易事,因为在正常的技术进步条件下再提高能源效率需要更多的投资来进行设备更新和技术改造。另外,未来的能源供给约束对CO2减排也会产生深刻的影响。未来中国应该大力发展低碳技术,国际社会应该支持中国发展低碳技术。
This paper builds an energy-economy-environment model based on the dynamic CGE model to simulate the potential of CO2 emission reduction in 2020 and policy options. The results show that carbon taxes and investment adjustments are effective policy instruments to slow the growth of CO2 emissions, but they have a negative impact on GDP. Accelerating technological progress can simultaneously promote emission reduction and economic growth. Under the conditions of high-tech progress + medium carbon tax, low-tech progress + medium carbon tax + medium-investment adjustment, China’s CO2 emissions in 2020 will reach 9.27-95.5 billion tons and the CO2 emission intensity will be 1.38-1.43 million Yuan -1. According to the Chinese government’s target of reducing emissions by 2020, the intensity of China’s CO2 emissions needs to drop from 24,100 yuan -1 in 2005 to 14,500 yuan -1 in 2020 (constant price in 2007). However, achieving the 40% emission reduction target is not an easy task because further energy efficiency improvements under normal technological advances require more investment in equipment upgrades and technological improvements. In addition, the future energy supply constraints will also have a profound impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions. In the future, China should vigorously develop low-carbon technologies and the international community should support China’s efforts to develop low-carbon technologies.