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干旱在我国是一种常见的自然现象,农业干旱灾害每年给国家和人民造成了严重的经济损失。为防患于未然和减轻干旱乏水的影响,不少国内外学者对干旱识别与评价开展了研究。本研究采用基于供需水量平衡的评价指标和用均值化方法处理得到的供需水相对指数作为熵权法的评价指标对农业干旱进行识别与评价,对属南亚热带季风气候区的田东县内不同农业区域的易旱区及干旱月、季度变化趋势、干旱程度进行识别与评价。分析计算的结果表明,熵权法用于识别与评价旱地农业干旱具有合理性,评价的结果与干旱实际情况较吻合,对干旱识别与评价是一种有效可行的方法。
Drought is a common natural phenomenon in our country. The agricultural drought disaster has caused serious economic losses to the country and the people every year. In order to take precautionary measures and mitigate the impact of drought and water shortage, many domestic and foreign scholars have conducted research on drought identification and assessment. In this study, agricultural drought was identified and evaluated based on the evaluation index of supply and demand water balance and the relative index of water supply and demand treated by means of the average value method as the evaluation index of the entropy weight method. Arid zones and drought months in the region, quarterly trends and degree of drought were identified and evaluated. The results of analysis and calculation show that it is reasonable to use entropy method to identify and evaluate agricultural drought in dryland. The result of evaluation is in good agreement with the actual situation of drought. It is an effective and feasible method to identify and evaluate drought.