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根据风险理论,建立了包括农业干旱发生概率、抗旱能力、受灾体种植面积比等多因子的灌区农业干旱风险评估模型。并将相对产量作为灌区农业干旱评估指标,能够反映土壤 作物 大气系统中水分运动对农业生产的影响,利用该指标结合干旱风险评估模型对灌区农业干旱进行风险评估,分析出灌区各种作物对干旱风险度影响最大的生育阶段和风险度最高的农作物,以便灌区制定合理的抗旱方案以减小灌区干旱损失。
According to the risk theory, a risk assessment model of agricultural drought in irrigated area is established, which includes the occurrence probability of agricultural drought, drought resistance and planting area ratio of affected area. Taking the relative yield as index of agricultural drought assessment in irrigation area, it can reflect the influence of water movement on the agricultural production in the atmospheric system of the soil crop. By using this index and the drought risk assessment model, the risk assessment of agricultural drought in the irrigation area is conducted. The risk of the most affected stage of growth and the most risky crops, so irrigation districts to develop a reasonable drought plan to reduce irrigation losses in the irrigation area.