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为了解气候变暖对极端降水的影响,根据1960～2009年气象站实测降水量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、线性趋势和反映序列持续性的Hurst指数,分析了四季中国西部、北方和南方三个区域最大1d降水量的变化特征,并探讨了20世纪80年代前后中国四季最大1d降水量的变化趋势。结果表明,近50年来西部四季最大1d降水量均呈增加趋势,北方仅冬季呈上升趋势,南方则冬、夏两季增加,春、秋两季减小;相对80年代前,80年代后冬季三大区域、夏季西部和南方及秋季西部最大1d降水量有所增加,春、秋季北方和南方则减少;各区域四季最大1d降水量时间序列具有明显的持续性,即未来最大1d降水量变化趋势将与近50年的变化趋势保持一致,且持续时间西部最长,北方次之,南方最短。
In order to understand the impact of climate warming on extreme precipitation, Mann-Kendall trend test, linear trend and Hurst index reflecting the sequence continuity were used to analyze the seasonal distribution of precipitation in the four seasons in western, northern and southern China The variation of maximum 1d precipitation in the three regions and the trend of maximum 1d precipitation in the four seasons of China around the 1980s were discussed. The results show that in the past 50 years, the maximum precipitation in the four seasons in the western part of China increased with the increase of the maximum in the northern part of the western China in the past 50 years, increased in the northern part only in winter, increased in winter and summer in the south and decreased in spring and autumn, In the three regions, the maximum 1-day precipitation increased in summer, western and southern China as well as in western China in autumn and decreased in northern and southern areas in spring and autumn. The maximum 1-day precipitation seasonal time series in all seasons in all four regions showed significant persistence, that is, the maximum precipitation in the future The trend will be consistent with the change trend in the past 50 years, with the longest duration in the west, the second in the north and the shortest in the south.