碳税是实现绿色发展的重要环境规制手段,并已为一些发达国家采用,但其对本国贸易模式的影响也是需要慎重考虑的问题。基于一个动态可计算一般均衡模型,探讨了不同税率下碳税对我国贸易模式的影响,发现碳税能显著削减我国的能源消耗和碳排放,而对经济增速及进出口贸易总量影响甚微。碳税实施后,碳密集型部门的出口及其在总出口中的份额有所下降,但其在进口中的份额会上升;而劳动密集型和技术密集型部门的出口会增加。因此,碳税对我国产业竞争力的负面影响并不显著,且碳税的实施有助于优化我国的贸易模式。本文认为我国可以考虑近期内开征碳税,并提出了相关政策建议。 Carbon tax is an important means of environmental regulation to achieve green development and has been adopted by some developed countries. However, its impact on its own trade model is also a matter that needs careful consideration. Based on a dynamic and computable general equilibrium model, the paper explores the impact of carbon tax on China’s trade patterns under different tax rates. It is found that carbon tax can significantly reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions in China, but has great impact on economic growth and total volume of import and export trade micro. After the implementation of the carbon tax, the exports of the carbon-intensive sectors and their share of total exports have declined, but their share of imports has risen; while the exports of both labor-intensive and technology-intensive sectors have increased. Therefore, the negative impact of carbon tax on the industrial competitiveness of our country is not significant, and the implementation of carbon tax will help to optimize our trade model. This paper believes that China can consider the introduction of carbon tax in the near future, and put forward relevant policy recommendations.