论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨南通市2005-2014年居民死亡情况及变化趋势。方法收集整理2005-2014年南通市居民死亡数据,分析死亡率的性别、年龄分布特征和逐年变化情况,并使用灰色模型GM(1,1)进行拟合和预测。结果南通市2005-2014年总死亡率822.60/10万,男性为909.72/10万,女性为739.44/10万,总死亡率均随年龄组的增高呈上升趋势(总趋势χ~2=1 564 564.463,P<0.001〕。2005-2014年,逐年总、性别死亡率及标化死亡率呈现下降趋势。灰色模型预测函数为Y=-3381.68-0.2265t+3796.16(t=0,1,2,……,n),预测到2019年,人群实际死亡率将下降到271.65/10万。结论南通地区人群死亡率呈现下降趋势,但是40岁以上人群尤其是男性仍是防控重点。
Objective To investigate the death and change of residents in Nantong from 2005 to 2014. Methods Data of deaths of residents in Nantong city from 2005 to 2014 were collected and analyzed, and the gender, age distribution characteristics and year-by-year changes of death rate were analyzed, and the gray model GM (1,1) was used to fit and forecast the mortality. Results The total mortality rate in Nantong from 2005 to 2014 was 822.60 / 100000, 909.72 / 100000 for males and 739.44 / 100000 for females. The total mortality rate increased with age group (χ ~ 2 = 1 564 564.463, P <0.001] .In 2005-2014, the annual total, gender mortality and standardization mortality showed a downward trend.The prediction function of gray model was Y = -3381.68-0.2265t + 3796.16 (t = 0,1,2, ..., n) and predict that the actual death rate will drop to 271.65 / 100000 by 2019. Conclusion The mortality rate in Nantong area shows a downward trend, but the population over 40 years old and men in particular are still the focus of prevention and control.