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针对风险管理方法难以对装备研制风险进行有效评价的问题,提出基于DHGF算法和三角模糊数的装备研制风险评价方法。运用德尔菲法建立装备研制风险的综合评价指标体系。基于三角模糊数和层次分析法(AHP)计算评价指标的权重。利用灰色系统理论确定评价灰类,计算灰色评价系数,得出灰色评价权向量和权矩阵。形成综合评判矩阵,进行模糊运算,求得综合评价结果。算例表明,该方法可有效用于装备研制风险的评价。
Aiming at the problem that the risk management method can not effectively evaluate the risk of equipment development, a risk assessment method of equipment development based on DHGF algorithm and triangular fuzzy number is proposed. Use Delphi method to establish the comprehensive evaluation index system of equipment development risk. Calculate the Weight of Evaluation Index Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Gray system is used to determine the gray level of evaluation, gray evaluation coefficient is calculated, and gray weight vector and weight matrix are obtained. Form a comprehensive evaluation matrix, perform fuzzy operation and obtain the result of comprehensive evaluation. The example shows that this method can be effectively used in the evaluation of equipment development risk.