本文是文献[1]的继续和发展,把灌溉变动供水多年调节水库,模拟成服从离散化皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布的随机输入存储系统,应用存储系统的概率理论,建立数学模型,通过线性方程组数值解法和可靠性分析,一次求灌溉变动供水多年调节水库总兴利库容及其相应的保证率. This paper is the continuation and development of the literature [1]. The reservoir is controlled by changing the water supply of irrigation for many years and is modeled as a stochastic input storage system which is discretized by Pearson-Ⅲ distribution. By using the probability theory of storage system, a mathematical model is established, Group numerical solution and reliability analysis, a change of irrigation water supply for many years to adjust the total inventory of the reservoir and its corresponding rate of guarantee.