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目前房地产已成为中国经济的支柱产业,同时资金流量分析表明房地产又不应成为主导产业。长期来看,城市化、人口增长和存量需求释放等刚性和扩张需求,将推动中国房地产行业持续发展,短期内价格暴涨和长时间涨速过快是不合理的。中国房地产市场短期内出现严重衰退的可能性不大,银行面对的风险仍然可控,但仍需注意政策调整的风险。商业银行仍应将房地产市场作为重要业务领域,有重点、有区别拓展;适度控制房地产贷款增速、总量及占比;建立对房地产贷款的全过程监管制度;探索房地产贷款以外的金融创新形式。
At present, real estate has become the pillar industry of China’s economy, while the analysis of capital flow shows that real estate should not become the leading industry. In the long run, the rigid and expanding demand for urbanization, population growth and the release of stock demand will promote the sustained development of China’s real estate industry. In the short term, it is unreasonable that the prices will skyrocket and the inflation rate will rise rapidly for a long period of time. China’s real estate market in the short term there is not a serious possibility of recession, the risk faced by banks is still controllable, but still need to pay attention to the risk of policy adjustments. Commercial banks still should regard the real estate market as an important business area, with emphasis and differentiated expansion. They should moderately control the growth, total amount and proportion of real estate loans, set up a supervision over the whole process of real estate loans, and explore forms of financial innovations other than real estate loans .