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上海郊区粘虫(Mythimna separataWalker),在春季由南方迁入后主要为害三麦,是间歇性猖獗害虫。本地幼虫发生量主要决定于迁入粘虫成虫产卵量及3月上旬至4月中旬的气温。根据粘虫在我县的18年资料及有关气象资料,应用微电脑对11个消长因素进行分析,建立3麦粘虫发生期、发生量的经验预测式,连续3年验证效果良好。 一、方法与运行结果 1.任何年份,田间小草把诱卵量对粘虫幼虫发生量影响都极显著;气候因素中,8℃以上积温及天数对发生量亦有显著影响。回归式:y=214.07+0.555891X_1+2.93943X_2-19.5589X_3……(1)
The Mythimna separata Walker, a pest in Shanghai’s suburbs, harms mainly Sanmai after it moved in from the south in springtime and is an intermittent rampant pest. The occurrence of local larvae is mainly determined by the amount of eggs laid by the adult armyworm and the temperature from early March to mid-April. According to the data of 18 years of Mythimna separata in our county and the related meteorological data, 11 factors of growth and decline were analyzed by microcomputer, and the empirical prediction formula of the occurrence and occurrence of 3 Mythimna separata was established. The validation results were good for 3 consecutive years. Methods and Results of Operation 1. In any year, the effect of the oviposition amount on the occurrence of armyworm larvae in the field was extremely significant. Among the climatic factors, the accumulated temperature and the number of days above 8 ℃ also had a significant impact on the occurrence. Regression: y = 214.07 + 0.555891X_1 + 2.93943X_2-19.5589X_3 ...... (1)