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[目的 ]估计我国 195 0～ 1998年计划免疫 (EPI)四病 (脊灰、麻疹、白喉和百日咳 )的发病趋势和计免开展所获得的经济效益。 [方法 ]收集全国疫情 ,以 SPSS软件包建立数据库 ,以计免前年发病“中位数法”与“指数平滑法”预测计免后 17年 (1982～ 1998)每年减少的发病例数。每个病例的经济损失分别以 10 0 0、40 0、6 0 0和 2 0 0元估计 ,未考虑减少发病损失 (经济效益 )的时间贴现。 [结果 ]计免前 32年 (195 0～ 1981)合计四病发病中位数为每年约 436万例 ;计免以来的17年 (1982～ 1998)累计四病减少发病约 6 85 4万例 (指数平滑法为 472 2万例 )。估计所获经济效益达 2 40亿元 (指数平滑法为 173亿元 )。 [结论 ]49年来四病下降趋势与计免工作的开展 ,表明计免投资是一项花钱少、效益高的健康投资 ,其费用效益比 >1∶ 14(指数平滑法约为 1∶ 10 )
[Objective] To estimate the incidence trend and cost-benefit of the four planned immunization (poliomyelitis, measles, diphtheria and pertussis) in China from 1995 to 1998. [Method] The national epidemic situation was collected and the database was set up with SPSS software package to reduce the annual incidence of cases from 1982 to 1998 predicted by “median method” and “exponential smoothing method” of the previous year. The economic loss of each case was estimated at 100, 400, 600 and 2000 respectively, and the time discount of reducing morbidity loss (economic benefit) was not considered. [Results] The median incidence of the four diseases in the first 32 years (195 0 ~ 1981) was 4.36 million cases per year. The cumulative incidence of the four diseases in the 17 years from 1982 to 1998 was about 68.4 million cases (Exponential smoothing 472 2 million). The estimated economic benefits reached 24 billion yuan (exponential smoothing method 17.3 billion yuan). [Conclusion] The downward trend of the four diseases in 49 years and the development of toll-free work indicate that investment-free investment is a health investment with low cost and high benefit. The cost-benefit ratio is 1:14 (the exponential smoothing method is about 1:10 )