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本文阐述了经济结构转型导致外部经济失衡的理论机制。一方面,传统部门存在大量劳动力,导致了现代部门较低的工资水平,因此现代部门的利润和储蓄会较大。另一方面,投资又受到资本边际回报递减规律的限制,一个处于经济结构转型的国家便容易出现储蓄大于投资的现象。本文尝试以中国为例,利用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR),在经济冲击中分离出劳动工资收入的冲击,以考察该冲击对外部经济失衡的动态影响。实证结果表明劳动工资收入冲击导致的劳动报酬增长率增加,会降低现代部门的储蓄,进而会显著降低当期的贸易顺差,并且对贸易顺差的负影响会持续较长时间。
This paper describes the theoretical mechanism of the economic structure transformation leading to the imbalance of external economy. On the one hand, there is a large amount of labor in the traditional sector, which leads to a lower level of wages in the modern sector. Therefore, the profits and savings of the modern sector will be larger. On the other hand, investment is further limited by the law of diminishing returns to capital, and a country in a structural transformation of the economy is prone to the phenomenon of savings greater than investment. This paper tries to take China as an example and use the structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to separate the impact of labor wage income in the economic shock to examine the dynamic impact of this shock on external economic imbalances. The empirical results show that the increase in the labor compensation rate caused by the impact of labor wage income will reduce the savings of the modern sector, which will significantly reduce the current trade surplus, and the negative impact on the trade surplus will continue for a long time.