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水击大小的不确定性取决于水电站水击的发生条件及其影响因素的随机性。在文献 [1 ]的研究基础上 ,本文考虑更多的随机影响因素 ,从简单管水击极值近似解析表达式出发 ,推导了年最大水击压力的解析概率分布。算例表明 ,与概率分布的 0 .95分位点值相比 ,总内水压力和第一相水击升压的确定性分析结果在数值上尚接近 ;但极限水击升压的确定性分析结果偏小 ,这值得引起工程界注意。
The uncertainty of water hammer size depends on the occurrence of water hammer and the randomness of its influencing factors. Based on the literature [1], more random factors are considered in this paper. Based on the analytic expression of simple tube water hammer extremum, the analytical probability distribution of annual maximum water hammer pressure is deduced. Numerical examples show that the deterministic results of the total internal water pressure and the first phase hydraulic boosting pressure are close in numerical value compared with the 0.95 quantile value of the probability distribution. However, the certainty of the limit hydraulic boosting pressure The analysis results are small, which deserves the attention of engineering.