肺结核病是由结核分枝杆菌引起的严重呼吸道传染病。若未及时发现并采取有效的防控措施,极易发生肺结核聚集发病,甚至造成突发公共卫生事件,直接影响社会的稳定。探索学校结核病发病趋势,建立高敏感度的学生肺结核发病预测模型,并采取精准、高效的疫情处置技术策略是目前学校结核病防控工作的重点内容。本研究通过时间序列模型的分析 Tuberculosis is a severe respiratory infection caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Failure to detect and take effective prevention and control measures in a timely manner can easily lead to the occurrence of tuberculosis aggregation and even public health emergencies that directly affect social stability. To explore the trend of tuberculosis in schools and establish a high-sensitivity prediction model of tuberculosis incidence among students and to adopt a precise and effective epidemic treatment technology strategy is the key content of tuberculosis prevention and control in schools at present. This study analyzes the time series model