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本文通过考察房地产行业的现状,并对主要影响因素进行深入分析,认为销售量的变化将对房地产行业产生决定性影响,但对当前房地产销量的态势保留不宜过分乐观的清醒认识。同时认为房价的变动直接影响需求,但综合目前情况,房价大幅变动的可能不大,通胀预期下,将影响居民的投资选择。在宏观向好的背景下,市场需求有可能继续放大,加上季报因素、估值相对优势,短期内房地产行业有投资机会。但也必须考虑房地产行业的中长期调整的基本因素。
By examining the current situation of the real estate industry and making in-depth analysis of the main influencing factors, the author believes that the change of sales volume will have a decisive influence on the real estate industry, but should not be overly optimistic and aware of the current situation of real estate sales. At the same time, it is considered that the change of house price has a direct impact on demand. However, considering the current situation, the substantial change in house prices may not be significant. Under inflation expectation, the investment choices of residents will be affected. In the macro-oriented background, the market demand is likely to continue to enlarge, with quarterly factors, the relative advantages of valuation, the short term real estate investment opportunities. But also must consider the real estate industry in the long-term adjustment of the basic factors.