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害虫发生程度的预测预报,是对其进行综合防治的必要前提。用数学模式表达环境因素与害虫发生数量的关系,从而达到较为准确的测报目的,是现代测报工作的重要手段。本文根据我所1956—1984年粘虫测报资料统计分析,选取高峰期雌蛾量、20束小谷草把最高落卵累积量和六月中旬相对湿度等预报因子,采用“列联比法”的数学模式,对赤峰地区二代粘虫发生程度进行预测预报结果证明,对25年历史资料回报检验,历史符合率达88％。列联比法在预报运算过程中,由于进行X~2测定和随机系数计算,使预报对象与预报因子的相关性更为明瞭,历史吻合率和预报准确率都较高,可做为赤峰地区第二代粘虫发生程度的短期预报方法。
Prediction of the occurrence of pests is a necessary prerequisite for its comprehensive prevention and control. Using mathematical model to express the relationship between environmental factors and the number of pests, so as to achieve a more accurate purpose of measuring and reporting, is an important means of modern measuring work. Based on the statistical analysis of mythimna syndrome data from 1956 to 1984 in our country, we selected the amount of female moths at peak, the cumulation of the highest larvae and the relative humidity in the middle of June from 20 larvae, Mathematical model, the occurrence of second generation armyworms in Chifeng area to predict the forecast results show that 25 years of historical data return test, the historical compliance rate of 88%. In the process of forecasting operation, the correlation between predictive objects and forecasting factors is more obvious due to the X ~ 2 measurement and the random coefficient calculation, and the coincidence of historical records and forecasting accuracy are both higher. The second generation of armyworm occurrence of short-term forecast method.