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进入21世纪,中美经贸相互依赖程度固然越来越深,但不可否认的是,矛盾摩擦也越来越多。事实上,依赖与摩擦相辅相成,依赖越深,摩擦越烈,而摩擦越烈,互动越频,就更增加相互依赖。可喜的是,中美经贸的大格局越来越稳定了,而这个大格局的主要特征是:乌云密布,雷声不断,暴雨不来。为什么说“乌云密布”呢?从美国方面看,这里面既有经济因素,也有政治因素。经济“乌云”是贸易逆差和产业衰落的阴影;政治“乌云”就是美国的新保守派。为什么“雷声不断”呢?因为,经济“乌云”与政治“乌云”交互作用,云集生电。人民币汇率问题就是一个例子。
Entering the 21st century, though the degree of economic and trade interdependence between China and the United States is getting deeper and deeper, it is undeniable that there are more and more contradictions and frictions. In fact, dependency and friction complement each other, the deeper the dependence, the more friction, and the more friction, the more frequent the interaction, the more interdependence. The good news is that the overall pattern of Sino-U.S. Economic and trade cooperation has become more and more stable. The main features of this grand pattern are: thick clouds, continuous thunderstorms and heavy rains. Why say “cloudy”? From the perspective of the United States, there are both economic and political factors. The “dark clouds” of economy are the shadow of the trade deficit and the decline of the industry. The political “dark clouds” are the neoconservatives in the United States. Why “thunder continues”? Because, economic “dark clouds” and political “dark clouds” interaction, gathered electricity. The RMB exchange rate issue is an example.