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目的探讨预测天津市肠道传染病发病率的灰色模型,为天津市肠道传染病防制工作提供科学的参考依据。方法利用2004—2009年天津市肠道传染病疫情资料建立GM(1,1)预测模型,进行模型评价,并对未来几年进行趋势预测。结果天津市肠道传染病发病率GM(1,1)模型为:Yt+1=-1 532.39e-0.1125t+1 681.68,拟合精度合格。结论模型能够用于预测天津市肠道传染病发病率的短期趋势,未来3年天津市肠道传染病将呈缓慢下降趋势。
Objective To explore a gray model for predicting the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in Tianjin and provide a scientific reference for the prevention and control of intestinal infectious diseases in Tianjin. Methods Based on the epidemiological data of intestinal infectious diseases in Tianjin from 2004 to 2009, the GM (1,1) prediction model was established to evaluate the model, and the trend was predicted in the next few years. Results The incidence of intestinal infectious disease in Tianjin GM (1,1) model: Yt + 1 = -1 532.39e-0.1125t + 1 681.68, the fitting accuracy. Conclusions The model can be used to predict the short-term trend of the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in Tianjin. The incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in Tianjin will decline slowly in the next 3 years.