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目的预测中国职业病的发病趋势,为职业病防控策略的制定提供科学依据。方法应用GM(1,1)灰色模型对2005~2012年中国职业病发病数据进行拟合,并外推预测2013~2015年中国职业病发病情况。结果职业病、尘肺病、职业性肿瘤、职业性耳鼻喉口腔等疾病的发病呈上升趋势,GM(1,1)灰色模型不适用于职业性中毒的发病预测。结论 GM(1,1)灰色模型在职业病发病预测中具有一定的应用价值。
Objective To predict the trend of occupational diseases in China and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of occupational disease prevention and control strategies. Methods The GM (1,1) gray model was used to fit the data of occupational diseases in China from 2005 to 2012 and extrapolated to predict the incidence of occupational diseases in China from 2013 to 2015. Results The incidence of occupational diseases, pneumoconiosis, occupational tumors and occupational otolaryngology and oral cavity diseases were on the rise. The GM (1,1) gray model was not suitable for the prediction of occupational poisoning. Conclusion GM (1,1) gray model has certain value in the prediction of occupational disease.