风险分析方法已应用多年。在商业界,这一方法已用来估计商业活动中经常存在的技术及经济方面的风险。大多数主管人员了解到,根据概率分析进行决策比采用单点估算作出决策要优越得多。然而,风险分析在工程中还应用得很不普遍。目前风险分析中存在的问题是,简单的方法一般工程人员可以应用,但过于简单,抓不住风险中难以捉摸的因素。而复杂的方法固然可抓住风险的本质和难以捉摸的因素,但又过于复杂,非专家不能应用。讲究实效的工程技术 Risk analysis methods have been used for many years. In the business world, this method has been used to estimate the technical and economic risks that are common in business activities. Most executives understand that making decisions based on probabilistic analysis is far superior to using single-point estimates. However, risk analysis is also not widely used in engineering. The current risk analysis of the problem is that simple methods can be applied to general engineering staff, but too simple to grasp the elusive elements of risk. While complex methods can catch the essence of the risks and the elusive factors, they are too complicated for non-experts to apply. Pay attention to practical engineering skills