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目的应用骨折风险预测工具(FRAX)对吉林省内绝经后女性人群骨折风险预测的适用性进行分析评价。方法选取2012-2015年在吉林油田总医院进行骨密度相关检查的874名绝经后女性为研究对象,按照FRAX软件对年龄、体重系数、吸烟、饮酒等资料进行录入,分析所有研究对象10年内的骨折风险预测结果。同时采用Logistic回归分析得到影响骨折的主要因素,与FRAX结果相比较,并采用Pearson相关性统计分析对FRAX软件中不录入骨密度与录入骨密度数据对FRAX骨折风险预估的影响。结果除饮酒与类风湿性关节炎因素以外,FRAX在绝经后女性人群骨折预测风险与各因素具有统计学意义(P<0.05),主要危险因素为既往骨折史。运用Logistic回归分析得到的骨折风险因素与FRAX得到的结果具有一致性,有无BMD值的FRAX预测主要骨折与髋部骨折的概率无显著性差异(P<0.05),通过ROC曲线下面积,结合BMD值进行FRAX结果预测较不结合BMD值的准确性要高。可适度选择推拿手法缓解,并疏筋理气。结论 FRAX可用于对绝经后女性人群骨折风险的预测,在有无BMD值的情况下预测结果均可靠。
Objective To evaluate the applicability of the Fracture Risk Prediction Tool (FRAX) to predict the fracture risk of postmenopausal women in Jilin Province. Methods A total of 874 postmenopausal women with bone mineral density-related tests at Jilin Oilfield General Hospital from 2012 to 2015 were selected as study subjects. Data of age, weight coefficient, smoking, drinking and drinking were collected according to FRAX software. All the subjects were analyzed within 10 years Fracture risk prediction. At the same time, the main factors affecting the fracture were obtained by Logistic regression analysis, and compared with the results of FRAX, Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the influence of FRAX fracture data on FRAX fracture risk prediction. Results Except for alcohol consumption and rheumatoid arthritis, the risk of fractures predicted by FRAX in postmenopausal women was statistically different from that of other factors (P <0.05). The main risk factors were history of previous fracture. Logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors of fracture were consistent with those of FRAX. There was no significant difference (P <0.05) between FRAX with or without BMD and the area under ROC curve. The FRAX results for BMD predicts higher accuracy than non-BMD values. Moderate choice of massage can be alleviated, and Soothing qi. Conclusion FRAX can be used to predict the fracture risk of postmenopausal women, and the predictive results are reliable in the presence of BMD.