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在城市化过程中,交通拥堵成为饱受关注的大问题。国内外大量文献证实了通勤时间增加会降低个体的工作效率,带来更多的偷懒行为。然而,这些研究几乎都是基于横截面分析或静态分析。而文章则着眼于个体和企业之间动态博弈的长期均衡,证明了通勤时间增加在长期内会减少公司内偷懒者的总体数量或降低偷懒行为的总体水平。这是因为,通勤时间的增加会使偷懒者的效用损失更大,在长期内会提高偷懒者的失业概率,于是,在均衡时,公司的总体偷懒水平被“倒逼”到更低的水平上,进而企业和城市整体的效率水平得以提升。文章通过对典型工厂的现场追踪收集数据,并在此基础上进行了计量分析,研究结果证实了上述结论。文章的结论对中国的城市布局及其交通配置提供了如下政策启示:城市集聚过程中的交通高度密集在长期内有利于城市整体效率的提升。在城市化的过程中,城市管理者无需单纯缩短居民的通勤时间,而是要保持交通体系的适度密集,发挥城市密度经济的整体效率和动态最优。
In the process of urbanization, traffic congestion has become a big problem of concern. A large number of documents both at home and abroad confirm that the increase of commuting time will reduce the individual’s work efficiency and bring more lazy behavior. However, almost all of these studies are based on cross-sectional analysis or static analysis. The essay focuses on the long-term equilibrium of the dynamic game between individuals and firms, and proves that the increase of commuting time will reduce the overall number of lazy people in the company or reduce the overall level of lazy behavior in the long run. This is because an increase in commuting time can result in a greater loss of utility for lazy people and a higher probability of laziness in the long run, so the overall lazy level of the company is “forced” down to a lower level at equilibrium The level of efficiency of enterprises and cities as a whole can be raised. The article collects the data through on-the-spot trace of a typical factory, and carries on the metrological analysis on the basis of this, the research result confirms this conclusion. The conclusion of the article provides the following policy implications for China’s urban layout and its traffic allocation: The high concentration of traffic during urban agglomeration will be conducive to the improvement of overall urban efficiency in the long run. In the process of urbanization, city managers need not simply shorten their commuting time, but rather maintain the moderate and intensive transportation system and make the best of the overall efficiency and dynamic of urban density economy.