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本文以土地市场化改革作为分析当前高房价问题的视角,测算了2003—2012年间我国30个省区土地市场化水平,并实证检验我国土地市场化改革对房地产市场的影响以及能否平抑房价的高企。研究发现:土地市场化水平与房价变动在统计上没有严格意义的正相关或者负相关关系,而是一种曲线关系。计量结果显示:土地市场化程度每提高一个百分点将带来房地产平均价格水平上升0.014%,从其边际效应来看,我国现阶段土地市场化对房价的影响已开始呈现“减缓效应”。此外,土地市场化对房地产价格水平的影响在中部和西部地区要明显高于东部地区,边际效应显示这种影响在中西部具有显著的“放大效应”。
In this paper, the land market reform as the analysis of the current high housing prices point of view, from 2003 to 2012 estimated the level of land market in 30 provinces and autonomous regions, and empirical tests of China’s land market reform on the real estate market and the ability to stabilize housing prices High. The result shows that there is no positive correlation or negative correlation between land-market level and house price fluctuation in statistics, but a curve relationship. The measurement results show that for every 1% increase in the degree of marketization of land, the average price level of real estate will increase by 0.014%. From the perspective of its marginal effect, the impact of land marketization on housing prices in China has begun to show a “mitigation effect”. In addition, the impact of land marketization on the real estate price level is significantly higher in the central and western regions than in the eastern region. The marginal effect shows that this effect has significant “amplification effect” in the central and western regions.