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油气项目投资风险与不确定性是影响油气工业盈利能力的重要因素。在进行油气项目投资的期望值评价时,新信息或附加信息能消除或减小决策的不确定性,从而有望提高期望收益和减小误差。给出了油气项目新信息价值评价指标,即完整信息的期望值(EVPI)和不完整信息的期望值(EVII)以及其计算方法。完整信息的期望值(EVPI)是完整信息的期望收益减去不确定条件下的期望收益;不完整信息的期望值(EVII)是不完整信息的期望收益减去不确定性条件下的期望收益。以某海上勘探远景区为例,运用决策树模型进行了实证研究,从新信息的期望币值角度计算出了新信息的价值,也即为获取新信息可以接受的最大的经济费用。实证研究表明,油气项目新信息获取价值分析方法为油气项目决策提供了依据,有助于决策者作出更好的决策。
Investment risks and uncertainties in oil and gas projects are important factors affecting the profitability of the oil and gas industry. New or additional information can eliminate or reduce the uncertainty of a decision when evaluating the expected value of an investment in an oil and gas project, which is expected to increase the expected return and reduce the error. The evaluation index of new information of oil and gas project is given, that is, the expected value of complete information (EVPI) and the expected value of incomplete information (EVII) and the calculation method. The expected value of complete information (EVPI) is the expected return of complete information minus the expected return under uncertain conditions. The expected value of incomplete information (EVII) is the expected return of incomplete information minus the expected return under uncertain conditions. Taking a offshore exploration prospect as an example, this paper conducts an empirical study using the decision tree model and calculates the value of the new information from the perspective of the expected value of the new information, that is, the maximum economic cost acceptable for acquiring the new information. Empirical studies show that the new information acquisition value analysis method of oil and gas project provides a basis for decision-making of oil and gas projects and helps decision makers to make better decisions.