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评价指标的不确定性是影响巷道稳定性评价的关键。为提高巷道稳定性评价的针对性,建立科学合理的评价模型,从地质条件和工程实际出发,运用未确知测度理论,选取影响巷道稳定性的岩体结构、顶板岩性、岩层倾角、开采深度、施工质量、断面形状、断面面积、支护效果、顶板控制方法、顶板位移量、巷道使用时间等11项因素。根据实测数据建立各影响因素的未确知测度函数,构建矿山巷道的稳定性等级评价和排序模型。采用定性、定量方法分析巷道稳定性评价中的不确定性影响因素,利用熵计算各影响因素的指标权重。依照置信度识别准则进行等级判定,得出巷道稳定性评价结果,并进行稳定程度排序。将该方法应用于某矿8条回采巷道的稳定性评价中。岩层倾角、开采深度、顶板位移量等3个评价指标权重比值差异较大,属于敏感性评价指标。较巷道R_(03)而言,巷道R_(08)的岩层倾角和开采深度2个评价指标的敏感性尤为明显,比值分别达77.43%、-46.72%。置信度取值的增加对评价结果没有显著影响,评价结果的可靠度较高。研究表明,将未确知测度理论应用于巷道稳定性评价是可行的。
The uncertainty of evaluation index is the key to influence the stability evaluation of roadway. In order to improve the pertinence of the roadway stability evaluation, a scientific and reasonable evaluation model is established. Based on the geological conditions and engineering practice, the unconfirmed measurement theory is used to select the rock mass structure, roof lithology, rock dip and mining Depth, construction quality, cross-sectional shape, cross-sectional area, supporting effect, roof control method, roof displacement, roadway use time and other 11 factors. According to the measured data, an unascertained measure function of each influencing factor is established to construct the stability grade evaluation and ranking model of mine roadway. The qualitative and quantitative methods were used to analyze the influencing factors of the uncertainty in the roadway stability evaluation, and the entropy was used to calculate the index weight of each influencing factor. According to the confidence level recognition criterion, the grade judgment is made, and the result of stability evaluation of the roadway is obtained, and the stability degree is sorted. The method is applied to the stability evaluation of 8 mining roadways in a mine. The weight ratio of three evaluation indexes, such as rock dip, mining depth and roof displacement, is quite different and belongs to the evaluation index of sensitivity. Compared with the roadway R_ (03), the sensitivity of the two evaluation indexes of the rock slope and the mining depth of the roadway R_ (08) is more obvious, with the ratios reaching 77.43% and 46.72% respectively. The increase of the confidence value has no significant effect on the evaluation result, and the reliability of the evaluation result is higher. The research shows that it is feasible to apply the unascertained measure theory to the stability evaluation of roadway.