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大都市区增长是当前中国城镇化发展的一种主要模式,如何确定其最佳空间增长形态是新型城镇化关注的重要内容之一。本研究立足于未来“生态城市”建设理念,从自然资源生态敏感性和城市发展适宜性角度构建双重约束条件,利用元胞自动机模型构建了生态空间胁迫下的城市增长过程模拟框架,探讨了边缘性增长、生态性增长与协调性增长3种发展模式,并从建设适宜性、生态安全性与斑块紧凑性等角度构建评价指标对模拟方案进行定量化对比。最后,以长江中游城市群的南昌大都市区进行实例应用,结果表明,协调性空间增长模式能最大程度降低城市建设对生态安全空间的侵蚀,大都市区在制定城市增长边界等空间政策时宜参考此种发展模式,基于生态空间胁迫分析的城市增长过程建模是一种有用的规划决策情景分析工具。
The metropolitan area growth is a major mode of urbanization development in China at present. How to determine its best spatial growth pattern is one of the important concerns of new urbanization. Based on the concept of “eco-city” in the future, this study constructs dual constraints from the perspectives of ecological sensitivity of natural resources and urban development suitability, constructs the simulation framework of urban growth process under ecological space stress by using cellular automata model, This paper discussed three development modes of marginal growth, ecological growth and coordinated growth. The evaluation indexes were constructed from the aspects of construction suitability, ecological security and plaque compactness to quantitatively compare the simulation schemes. Finally, the case study of Nanchang metropolitan area in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River shows that coordinated spatial growth mode can minimize the urban construction’s erosion of ecological security space. In the metropolitan area, it is advisable to make reference to the spatial policies such as urban growth boundary This kind of development model, based on ecological spatial coercion analysis of urban growth process modeling is a useful planning decision scenario analysis tools.