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利用已经建立的全国1736~1911年洪涝灾害时间序列,拟合了各个区域的洪涝灾害长期变化趋势,并通过功率港分析了时间序列的波动规律;同时,分析了气温、降水等自然因素的变化和人口总量变化、人口空间迁移以及土地利用变化等人文因素变化与灾害增减之间的关系。结果表明,洪涝灾害的波动主要由气候变化等自然因素的波动所引起,而人类活动增强并不断向高风险区扩展是洪涝灾害持续增长的主要原因,最终使洪涝灾害表现为在波动中持续增长。
Using the established time series of flood disasters in China from 1736 to 1911, the long-term trend of flood disasters in different regions was fitted and the fluctuation of time series was analyzed through the power port. At the same time, the changes of natural factors such as temperature and precipitation were analyzed And the relationship between changes in human factors such as population changes, population migration and changes in land use and disasters. The results show that the fluctuation of floods is mainly caused by the fluctuation of natural factors such as climate change, while the increase of human activities and the continuous expansion of high-risk areas are the main reasons for the continuous increase of floods and floods, which eventually leads to the continuous increase of the floods .