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幂次法则是普遍存在于自然科学和社会科学界的现象,而城市位序—规模法则是幂次法则在城市科学中的体现之一,然而特定城市规模分布一直缺乏完整的解释。本文尝试结合城市增长过程中土地开发行为的报酬递增规则与土地开发主体的风险认知行为,以城市增长的微观过程为切入视角模拟宏观城市聚落演化过程,进而探讨风险态度对城市聚落形态,尤其是对其规模分布的影响。研究结果表明:(1)即使城市聚落演化过程中存在多种风险态度,幂次法则在城市聚落的规模分布中仍保持着稳健性;(2)现实世界中城市聚落规模分布的变异和稳定可能来自城市主体风险态度的多样性。
The law of power is a common phenomenon in the natural sciences and social sciences, and the city order-scale law is one of the manifestations of the power law in urban science. However, the distribution of specific cities has been lack of a complete explanation. In this paper, we try to simulate the evolution of macroscopically urban agglomeration with the microscopic process of urban growth, combining with the rules of increasing returns on land development and the risk cognition of land development actors, and then discuss the risk attitudes to urban settlement patterns, especially Is the impact on its size distribution. The results show that: (1) even if there are multiple risk attitudes in the evolution of urban settlements, the power law still maintains its robustness in the size distribution of urban settlements; (2) the variation and stability of the urban agglomeration size distribution in the real world may be Diversity from the risk attitudes of city subjects.