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为了预测多年冻土区新建公路病害路段,辅助设计者在设计阶段进行合理设计,以模糊专家系统为基础提出了多年冻土区公路病害预测方法。以病害度为分析指标,以青藏公路某一路段作为研究对象,定性分析了道路病害的影响因子。根据实际病害数据,将青藏公路调查路段的病害度分为3级。结合青藏公路多年年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率等病害数据,建立了多年冻土区公路病害路段识别的模糊专家系统。运用MATLAB中的Fuzzy Logic Toolbox工具,将各种影响因子作为输入变量,对10组多年冻土区等距路段进行了病害度计算,并运用SPSS软件对计算病害度与实际病害度进行对比分析。分析结果表明:随着年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率的增大,道路病害率上升;计算病害度与实际病害度相关性达到0.751。可见,运用模糊专家系统对多年冻土区公路病害路段预测具有良好效果。
In order to predict the section of newly built road disease in permafrost regions, aided design of the assistant designers in the design phase of the rational design, based on the fuzzy expert system proposed in the permafrost zone road disease forecasting method. With disease degree as the analysis index, a section of Qinghai-Tibet Highway was taken as the research object to qualitatively analyze the influencing factors of road diseases. According to the actual disease data, the disease degree of Qinghai-Tibet Road section was divided into three levels. Combined with the annual average ground temperature, ice content, frost heave rate and other disease data of Qinghai - Tibet Highway, a fuzzy expert system for identification of road disease in permafrost regions was established. Using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox tool in MATLAB and various influence factors as input variables, the disease degree of 10 groups of permafrost regions was calculated. The calculated disease degree and actual disease degree were compared by SPSS software. The results show that the road disease rate increases with the increase of average annual ground temperature, ice content and frost heave rate. The correlation between calculated disease degree and actual disease degree reaches 0.751. It can be seen that the fuzzy expert system has good effect on predicting road disease sections in permafrost regions.