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未来的货币政策第一是降息,第二是在降息的同时,要控制资本外流,不要开放资本项目,第三是必须对实体经济采取产业扩张政策,减税和放宽市场准入,提高产业资本投资的欲望。这三件事需要综合来做,缺一不可。2014年,我国GDP同比增长7.4%,这个增速是1990年以来的新低。而在金融海啸之前的2007年,这一数字是14.2%,即便经过最终修订,当年的数字也达到了13%。也就是说,7年的时间,中国GDP增速几乎滑落为原来的一半。尽管GDP“保八”不再是必须,但一个不能忽略的事实是,经济增速过分下滑的背后可能是实体经济的疲弱。
The first is to cut interest rates in the future. The second is to curb capital outflows while not cutting capital. The third is that we must adopt a policy of industrial expansion to the real economy, tax cuts and market access liberalization, and increase industrial capital. The desire to invest. These three things need to be integrated, are indispensable. In 2014, China’s GDP grew by 7.4% over the same period of the previous year. This growth rate is the lowest since 1990. In 2007, before the financial tsunami, this figure was 14.2%. Even after the final revision, the figure reached 13% in the same year. In other words, in seven years, China’s GDP growth rate has almost slipped to half. Although GDP is no longer necessary, one can not ignore the fact that the excessive decline in the economy may be behind the weakness of the real economy.