农民起义对于中国的历史进程与王朝周期都有重要影响,但目前对于农民起义的定量研究还比较缺乏。本文首次构建了一个涵盖中国北方的王朝面板数据集,以王朝为横截面,时间跨度为公元25—1911年。研究结果表明,严重饥荒及王朝年龄都与农民起义显著正相关;而作为政府能力的代理变量,政府救灾能有效地降低农民起义的概率。负向气候冲击(比如严重旱灾、蝗灾)主要通过严重饥荒这个渠道影响农民起义。人口密度、气温及其他气候变量(比如水灾、黄河决堤、雪灾与霜冻灾害)的作用不显著或不稳健。 The peasant uprising has an important influence on the historical process of China and the dynastic cycle. However, the quantitative research on the peasant uprising is still relatively scarce at present. This article for the first time constructed a dynastic panel dataset covering northern China with a dynastic cross-section spanning 25- 1911 AD. The results show that both the serious famine and the dynastic age are significantly and positively related to the peasant uprising. As the proxy variable of government ability, the government disaster relief can effectively reduce the probability of the peasant uprising. Negative climate shocks (such as severe drought and locust plague) affect the peasant uprisings mainly through a serious famine. The effects of population density, temperature and other climate variables such as flooding, the Yellow River bank, snow and frost disasters are insignificant or unsteady.