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本文运用VAR模型和状态空间模型分析2011-2017年中国煤炭价格指数与火力发电量二者之间的动态交互效应,基于供给侧改革角度对2016年煤价上涨原因进行分析,结果表明:中国煤炭价格指数和火力发电量之间存在长期均衡关系,并具有明显的互动关系。两者之间的动态关系是变化的,趋势成分在2016年4月后开始出现结构性变化,周期成分表现为中国煤炭价格指数和火力发电量的动态关系受季节性火电需求影响,煤炭限产及276工作日等政策的实施是促使2016年煤价上涨的主要原因。文章最后建议建立以火力发电量监测为核心的煤炭价格预测预警体系。
This paper uses VAR model and state space model to analyze the dynamic interaction effect between China’s coal price index and thermal power generation in 2011-2017, and analyzes the reasons for the coal price increase in 2016 based on the supply-side reform perspective. The results show that: There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price index and thermal power generation, and has a clear interactive relationship. The dynamic relationship between the two is changing. The trend component begins to show structural changes after April 2016. The periodic composition shows that the dynamic relationship between China’s coal price index and thermal power generation is affected by the seasonal thermal power demand. Coal-limited And 276 working days and other policies is to promote the main reason for the coal price in 2016 increased. Finally, the article proposes to establish a coal price forecasting and early warning system based on the monitoring of thermal power generation capacity.