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2013年,国际石油市场WTI和布伦特油价走势出现分化,全年WTI油价略有回升,现货均价为98.0美元/桶,比2012年上升3.8美元/桶;布伦特油价小幅回落,现货均价为108.6美元/桶,同比下降3.0美元/桶。展望2014年,一方面世界石油供需形势相对宽松,不支撑油价走高;另一方面,美国退出量化宽松货币政策将导致美元升值,打压油价。同时,中东地区地缘政治局势对国际油价的影响也将弱化。总体看,以布伦特为代表的国际油价将小幅回落,预计布伦特原油年均价为100~108美元/桶;代表美国市场的WTI原油价格小幅上涨,预计WTI原油年均价为97~105美元/桶。
In 2013, WTI and Brent oil prices in the international oil market diverged. The WTI oil price rebounded slightly in the year. The average spot price was 98.0 U.S. dollars per barrel, up 3.8 U.S. dollars per barrel from 2012. The Brent oil prices declined slightly, The price of 108.6 US dollars / barrel, down 3.0 US dollars / barrel. Looking forward to 2014, on the one hand, the world oil supply and demand situation is relatively loose and does not support higher oil prices. On the other hand, the withdrawal of the United States from the quantitative easing monetary policy will lead to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the suppression of oil prices. At the same time, the influence of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East on the international oil price will also be weakened. Overall, the international oil price represented by Brent will slightly drop. The average annual price of Brent crude oil is estimated at 100-108 U.S. dollars per barrel. The WTI crude oil price representing the U.S. market edged up slightly. The average annual WTI crude oil price is expected to be 97 ~ 105 US dollars / barrel.