论文部分内容阅读
以韩江上游梅江的一级支流五华河为研究区域,选取近30a来的径流、泥沙和降雨数据,运用累积滤波器、Mann-Kendall、R/S、降水-径流双累积曲线等多种统计模型方法,分析径流、泥沙的年际变化特征、突变和相关关系,并在受人类活动和气候变化影响的基础上,探讨径流、泥沙的变化规律以及贡献率。结果表明:(1)径流年际变化总体略呈下降趋势,但趋势不明显;输沙量则表现出显著下降的趋势;(2)未来年径流量和输沙量可能呈现持续减少的趋势;(3)径流量在1981~1985年、1997~2001年和2004~2008年这3个时段内发生突变;输沙量在1987年发生突变;(4)单位水流的含沙量较少,河床基本处于冲刷状态;(5)降水对径流量变化的贡献率为73%,人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率为27%;输沙量快速减少的变化中,气候变化的贡献率为21%,人类活动的贡献率为79%。可见降水是五华河流域径流量变化最重要的影响因素,而人类活动是输沙量变化最重要的影响因素。
Based on Wuhua River, a tributary of the Meijiang River in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, the runoff, sediment and rainfall data from the past 30 years were selected. The cumulative filter, Mann-Kendall, R / S, precipitation- Various statistical modeling methods are used to analyze interannual variability, abrupt changes and correlations of runoff and sediment, and to explore the variation rules of runoff and sediment and their contribution rate based on human activities and climate change. The results show that: (1) The interannual variation of runoff generally shows a downward trend, but the trend is not obvious; the sediment discharge shows a significant downward trend; (2) The annual runoff and sediment load may continue to decrease; (3) Runoff occurred in three periods from 1981 to 1985, from 1997 to 2001 and from 2004 to 2008; sediment discharge changed suddenly in 1987; (4) (5) The contribution rate of precipitation to runoff change is 73%, and the contribution rate of human activities to runoff change is 27%. Among the change of sediment reduction rapidly, the contribution rate of climate change is 21% , Human contribution rate of 79%. Visible precipitation is the most important influencing factor of runoff in Wuhua River Basin, and human activities are the most important influencing factors of sediment discharge.