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本文基于中国232个城市2005-2013的面板数据,运用门槛面板回归模型考察了金融发展对经济波动的影响。实证结果显示,金融发展对经济波动的影响存在显著的非线性和非对称效应:在金融发展水平较低的区间内,金融发展所导致的经济波动效应比较明显;而当金融发展水平较高时,金融发展所导致的经济波动效应则会出现显著弱化。上述结论在多种稳健性检验下均显著成立。此外,通过将政府支出和产业结构的门槛值效应纳入分析,我们还发现,高水平的金融发展和良好的政府干预能力具有相互促进的效应,而过度的金融发展和失衡的产业结构则可能成为经济不稳定的重要原因。
Based on the panel data of China’s 232 cities from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines the impact of financial development on economic fluctuations using the threshold panel regression model. The empirical results show that there are significant nonlinear and asymmetric effects of financial development on economic fluctuations: in the lower level of financial development, the economic fluctuation caused by financial development is more obvious; and when the level of financial development is high The economic volatility caused by financial development will be significantly weakened. The above conclusion in a variety of robustness test was established. In addition, by including the threshold effect of government expenditure and industrial structure, we also find that the high level of financial development and the good ability of government intervention have a mutually reinforcing effect, and excessive financial development and unbalanced industrial structure may become An important reason for economic instability.