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针对风电场建设单位在风电场建设风险评价中偏好使用传统工具且评价效果受主观偏好、信息不全面影响的现状,结合层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)、模糊综合评判(fuzzy synthetic evaluation,FSE)构建了基于三角模糊数的模糊层次风险评价模型。为提高风险评价的准确性,利用FSE扩大信息量、使用两两比较判断矩阵计算风险因素排序权重,并采用三角模糊数刻画人类思维的模糊性。实例应用的结果证明,该模型层次分明、操作简单的特点使其在风电场建设的风险评价实践中具有可行性。
In view of the current situation that wind farm construction units prefer to use traditional tools in risk assessment of wind farm construction and the evaluation results are subjectively influenced and the information is not fully affected, this paper analyzes the present situation of wind farm construction units based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthetic evaluation FSE) to construct fuzzy hierarchy risk assessment model based on triangular fuzzy number. In order to improve the accuracy of risk assessment, the FSE was used to expand the information volume, and the risk weight ranking weights were calculated by using the comparison judgment matrix. The triangular fuzzy numbers were used to characterize the fuzziness of human thinking. The results of the application of the example prove that the model has the characteristics of being clear and easy to operate, which makes it feasible in the risk assessment of wind farm construction.