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灰色系统(Grey systems)理论现已广泛地应用于各个领域,在建模、控制、预测及系统分析方面的思路和方法有其明显优点和实用意义。 1985年以来,天津市海水养殖业有了很大的发展,目前已成为天津市养殖业的一个重要组成部分,海水养殖生产状况的变动对我市整个养殖业会产生较大的影响。因此,将灰色系统理论用于海水养殖业,及时分析掌握生产运行状态及发展趋势,对今后生产的宏观指导及科学决策,有着重要的意义。本文应用灰色系统理论,将天津市海水养殖生产有关数据建立灰色模型,对生产状况评估和预测方面作如下初步探讨。
Gray system theory has been widely used in various fields, and its ideas and methods in modeling, control, prediction and system analysis have obvious advantages and practical significance. Since 1985, the marine aquaculture industry in Tianjin has made great progress and has become an important part of the aquaculture industry in Tianjin. The changes in the status of mariculture and aquaculture have a great impact on the aquaculture industry in Tianjin. Therefore, using the gray system theory in marine aquaculture, analyzing and grasping the production operation status and development trend in time, is of great significance to the macroscopic guidance and scientific decision-making of the future production. In this paper, the gray system theory is applied to establish the gray model for the data of marine aquaculture production in Tianjin, and the preliminary discussion is made on the assessment and prediction of production status.