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目的了解信阳市传染病自动预警系统的运转情况,为进一步提高工作质量提供依据。方法收集信阳市2008年7月1日—2012年6月30日期间预警系统的监测数据,运用描述流行病学方法进行统计分析。结果预警系统共发出5 072条预警信号,其中单病例预警信号598条,移动百分位数法4 474条。预警信号24 h内的响应率为90.95%,响应时间中位数为1.4 h(P25～P75:0.45～5.22)。3 281条预警信号(64.69%)通过监测数据分析初步核实。疑似事件信号占总信号数的4.67%,疑似事件信号的完整处置率为26.16%,预警信号的阳性率为0.14%。结论预警信号的响应率较高,预警系统可以实现传染病暴发的早期自动预警。为提高预警效率和预警准确性,需要加强研究以减少假阳性预警信号的数量,提高传染病疫情监测数据的质量,规范预警信号的响应程序。
Objective To understand the operation of automatic warning system for infectious diseases in Xinyang City and provide the basis for further improving the quality of work. Methods The monitoring data of early warning system in Xinyang city from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2012 were collected, and the descriptive epidemiological method was used for statistical analysis. As a result, a total of 5 072 early-warning signals were issued, including 598 single-case early warning signals and 4 474 mobile percentiles. The response rate within 24 h was 90.95%, and the median response time was 1.4 h (P25 ~ P75: 0.45 ~ 5.22). 3 281 warning signals (64.69%) were initially verified through monitoring data analysis. The suspected event signal accounted for 4.67% of the total number of signals, the complete signal processing rate of the suspected event was 26.16%, and the positive rate of the warning signal was 0.14%. Conclusion The response rate of early warning signal is high, and early warning system can realize early warning of outbreak of infectious disease. In order to improve the efficiency of early warning and the accuracy of early warning, research needs to be stepped up to reduce the number of false positive warning signals, improve the quality of epidemic monitoring data of infectious diseases and regulate the response procedures of early warning signals.