市场预测方法,归纳起来可以分为两大类:一类是通过市场调查,由有关的管理人员作出判断;另一类是根据统计资料运用数理方法,进行分析计算,这两种方法都有可取之处,但也有局限性。前者受心理因素影响较大,后者又难以把多种社会经济因素反映出来。尤其是这些方法是以企业销售资料推测未来,而没有考虑国家调控市场,市场引导企业的作用。单纯凭经验或单纯的数理统计分析方法,都会出现片面性和局限性。以 The market forecasting methods can be divided into two categories: one is through the market survey, and the relevant management personnel make judgments; the other is the use of mathematical methods based on statistical data for analysis and calculation. Both methods are desirable. However, there are limitations. The former is greatly affected by psychological factors, while the latter is difficult to reflect a variety of socio-economic factors. In particular, these methods are based on corporate sales data to speculate on the future, and do not consider the state to regulate the market, the market guides the role of enterprises. Simply relying on experience or simple mathematical statistical analysis methods, there will be one-sidedness and limitations. To