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基于塔里木河流域8个气象站和15个水文站的长期观测资料,采用回归分析、时间序列分析和非参数检验的方法对塔里木河流域水资源利用及其变化趋势进行了研究,重点分析了1994—2003年10年流域水资源利用及变化趋势．分析和检验结果显示:塔里木河流域近40年源流来水量呈现增加的趋势,特别是在近10年源流水量的增加更为明显,说明随着全球气候的变化塔里木河源流区的水情得到了好转．但在近10年三源流来水量增加近25×108 m3／a情况下,源流补给干流的水量只增加了不足1×108m3／a,特别是干流沿程各站点的径流量仍呈显著的线性递减趋势,表明塔里木河源流连续10年的丰水期并没有改变干流环境恶化的局面．
Based on the long-term observation data of 8 weather stations and 15 hydrological stations in the Tarim River Basin, the utilization of water resources and their changing trends in the Tarim River Basin are studied by regression analysis, time series analysis and non-parametric tests. Ten Years of Basin Water Resources Utilization and Trend in 2003. The analysis and test results show that the source water inflow in the Tarim River Basin has been increasing in recent 40 years, especially in the past 10 years. This shows that as the global climate changes, the water conditions in the Tarim River source area have been obtained Better. However, in the past 10 years, the water flow from the three sources increased by nearly 25 × 108 m3 / a, the amount of water supplied by the source flow only increased by less than 1 × 108 m3 / a. Especially, the runoff at each site along the main stream still showed a significant linearity The declining trend indicates that the continuous flow of Tarim River source for 10 years has not changed the worsening of the mainstream environment.