论文部分内容阅读
粮食保险属于政策性农业保险,准确的费率厘定将有助于政府制订出科学的保险支农政策。粮食巨灾事件属于极值事件,故本文基于极值理论进行研究,根据诊断以GPD作为粮食灾损数据的尾部分布,采用极大似然法估计GPD参数,按照费率厘定的期望损失法思路,探讨了粮食巨灾保险的纯费率厘定方法,进而对主产区粮食巨灾保险的纯费率进行了厘定。厘定结果表明,各主产区的纯费率较高且差异明显,北方主产区的平均纯费率高于南方主产区。据此提出政策建议:政府应加大对各主产区粮食巨灾保险的扶持力度,对各主产区的保费补贴应依费率不同而区别对待,对北方主产区的扶持力度应相对更大。
Food insurance belongs to policy-based agricultural insurance. Accurate rate determination will help the government to formulate a scientific insurance policy for supporting agriculture. Based on the theory of extreme value, this paper conducts the research based on the extreme value theory, estimates the GPD parameters by using the GPD as the tail distribution of the grain disaster data, estimates the expected loss method according to the rate , Discusses the method of determining the pure rate of food catastrophe insurance, and then determines the pure rate of food catastrophe insurance of the main producing areas. The result of the determination shows that the purely premium rates of the main producing areas are higher and the difference is obvious. The average pure premium rate of the main producing areas in the north is higher than that of the main producing areas in the south. Based on this, policy recommendations are proposed: the government should increase the support for food catastrophe insurance in all the main producing areas, treat the premium subsidies in main producing areas differently according to the different rates, and support the main producing areas in the North relative Bigger