历次积极财政政策对促进经济增长的作用显著,但却背离初衷,加剧了经济波动。运用变参数的状态空间模型评价新中国成立以来中国特色公共支出决策机制对熨平经济周期的政策效果,结果表明,财政政策始终未能跳出“顺周期陷阱”。进一步对相机抉择功能和自主稳定功能剥离,发现周期性盈余与经济周期反向变动,造成经济雪上加霜和热上加热;而结构性赤字则存在路径依赖,抑制萧条和推波助澜共存,政策功能被扭曲。为此,中国应该坚持市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的前提下,充分考虑政策成本,构建结构性预算平衡机制、提高政策透明度,为构建现代财政制度添砖加瓦。 The proactive fiscal policies have played a significant role in boosting economic growth but have deviated from their original objectives and exacerbated economic fluctuations. The state space model with variable parameters is used to evaluate the policy effect of the public expenditure decision-making mechanism with Chinese characteristics on the flattened economic cycle since the founding of New China. The results show that fiscal policy has failed to jump out of the “cyclical trap”. Further stripping the function of camera selection and self-stabilization, found that cyclical surplus and reverse economic cycle changes, resulting in the economy worse and hot heating; and structural deficits exist path dependence, depression and push coexistence, policy features are distorted. To this end, China should adhere to the premise that the market will play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, give full consideration to the cost of policies, build a structural budget balance mechanism, raise the transparency of policies and build a modern financial system.